Tariffs and formation of free trade agreements networks

This paper examines the formation of bilateral free trade agreements (FTAs) on the basis of country heterogeneity in the tariff level. We demonstrate that a country's unilateral incentive to form an FTA depends on the relative magnitudes of the (negative) market concession effect and the (positive) market expansion effect, both of which are determined by the tariff levels of the two FTA partner countries. Global welfare is maximised when all country pairs form FTAs. Two countries in equilibrium are more likely to form an FTA when their tariff gap is smaller or when their tariff levels are neither very high nor very low. This finding is robust to several extensions of the model. Our preliminary empirical analysis provides some evidence for the finding.     

Labour market adjustment to third-party competition: Evidence from Mexico

China's exports reduce wages in importing countries, but few studies have looked at competition in third-party markets. We examine labour market outcomes in Mexico's apparel and textile sectors associated with US apparel and textile imports from China. Using data on US imports in conjunction with quarterly Mexican labour force surveys, we show that US imports from China are associated with a reduction of employment in Mexico's apparel and textile sectors. These effects are the most pronounced for the least educated. Wages were not impacted on net except for possibly the poorest which would indicate stronger local labour market ties in the left tail of the wage distribution. Finally, the effects of trade-induced demand shocks dissipate after about two quarters indicating low firm-level adjustment costs.     

The nature of trade,global production fragmentation and inflationary dynamics: Cross-country evidence

This study investigates under which circumstances trade has impact on inflation dynamics by examining the independent effects of trade intensity, intra-industry trade and trade on value added. Trade in goods is decomposed into consumption (final) goods and intermediate inputs to deepen the assessment of the role of the globalisation of production activities on inflation dynamics. Open-economy new Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) analyses suggest that inflation is sensitive to domestic factors and that the relevance of external factors changes with respect to the nature of trade, country groups and time. Vertical intra-industry trade in intermediate inputs and value-added trade play important role, whereas final goods trade has no statistically significant effect on inflation dynamics.     

Trade shocks,product mix adjustment and productivity growth in Italian manufacturing

In this paper, we use firm-level data on the universe of Italian manufacturing multi-product exporters to test whether demand shocks in export markets lead multi-product exporters to increase their productivity. The main mechanism behind the documented productivity gains is the reallocation of resources across products within firms (American Economic Review, 104, 2014 and 495; National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series No. 22433, 2016). Intuitively, the increased demand stemming from foreign markets will induce firms to adjust their product mix by moving inputs from low to high productive/profitable uses. We find that these productivity gains are significant and can explain between 1/10 and 1/2 of aggregate productivity growth in the manufacturing sector.     

Political economy of the US–Mexican tomato trade agreement

We develop a political economy model to analyse the US–Mexican tomato trade agreement by treating the minimum import price as a negotiated settlement. We incorporate the special characteristics of the US–Mexican tomato dispute, namely trade among large countries, the role of competing fresh and processed tomato lobbies, quota revenues accruing to Mexican producers, bargaining for a minimum import price rather than a tariff, and the role of the Canadian tomato market. We show the importance of the size of the lobby group's supply, the weight elected officials' place on national welfare, and the elasticities of export supply and import demand in determining the optimal price wedge. For the United States, larger fresh tomato or cherry–grape tomato supply intensifies the degree of protection awarded to US growers, while US processors work to mitigate this effect. From Mexico's perspective, larger Mexican fresh or cherry–grape output induces a push towards free trade due to the agreement's depressing effect on Mexican prices, while Mexican processors and quota revenues exacerbate the price wedge.     

Financial literacy and support for free trade in the UK

Recent events in Europe and the United States suggest that open economies are increasingly under stress as nationalist, protectionist and populist political entrepreneurs are gaining significant ground across the Western world. Many theories have been formulated as to which factors are more likely to explain such policy preferences. The hypothesis tested in this paper is that financial literacy affects economic policy preferences. I analyse data from the British Election Study and test my theory on support for free trade in the United Kingdom. Findings suggest that financial literacy does affect economic policy preferences. On average, financially literate individuals are more likely to think that free trade is good for the British economy. Furthermore, this is true regardless of economic self-interest, as both financially literate winners and losers from globalisation are more likely to support free trade than their illiterate counterparts.     

The not-so-generalised effects of the Generalized System of Preferences

We use an empirical gravity equation to study how non-reciprocal trade preferences (NRTPs), enacted mainly through the Generalized System of Preferences, affect the exports of the beneficiary nations. In line with existing studies, the average trade effect stemming from non-reciprocal preferences is highly unstable across specifications. However, once we allow for heterogeneous effects, results become robust and economically important. Specifically, NRTPs have a strong effect on the exports of beneficiaries when they are members of the World Trade Organization and are very poor. Not-so-poor beneficiaries also expand foreign sales, but only if they are not WTO members. For all others, the average export effects of NRTPs are mute.     

Attracting potential blood donors: The role of personality and social marketing

Globally, society has been facing several and growing health problems, which increased the importance of efforts towards social change. In this context, using social marketing to create and implement programs that foster behavioural change has increased in the public health community. One of the health problems that society has been facing is the unceasing need for blood products, so the subject of blood donation became an important research topic in the area of social marketing, as social marketing strategies can contribute to solving this problem. It is essential to understand the factors that motivate individuals to donate blood, to enhance the recruitment and retention of blood donors. Our study aims at evaluating the key personality factors that influence blood donation behaviour to reach a higher understanding of what concerns this global issue. The method used to analyse the data is ANOVA. We conclude that the Personality of potential donors is significantly different from the non-donors' regarding Openness to Experience and Agreeableness. These results suggest that potential donors might perceive blood donation, as well as the associated barriers, differently from non-donors. Based on our findings, we suggest some perspectives for future research in this area.     

数字贸易政策国际比较、发展趋势及启示

随着信息通讯技术的发展,数字贸易作为一种新兴的国际贸易形式得以快速发展,在拓展国际贸易范围和边界的同时,也对全球贸易规则提出新的挑战。本文在分析全球数字贸易发展现状的基础上,重点梳理了美国、欧盟、日本等国家数字贸易政策发展脉络,以及数字贸易的未来发展趋势。然后,本文从中小企业的发展、平台企业的作用、数字贸易规则制定等方面提出对中国数字贸易发展的启示。本文认为,中国作为极具潜力的数字贸易大国,在数字经济发展的驱动下参与并推动建设国际数字贸易治理体系势在必行。     

海南自由贸易港海关通关监管模式研究

习近平总书记在庆祝海南建省办经济特区30周年大会上重要讲话和中央12号文件1精神,对海南建设中国特色自由贸易港作出了重要部署,也为海关支持海南建设中国特色自由贸易港提出了新的任务要求。本文针对这一背景,结合海关贯彻落实党的十九届四中全会精神部署要求,聚焦跨境贸易更加便利、风险防控更加精准、区域经济更加活跃的自贸港建设目标,研究提出"一线放开、二线高效管住"海关通关监管模式,并就如何强化保障、防控风险提出相应建议,积极助推海南建设中国特色自由贸易港。